Russia, Iran, and Turkey: The Clash of Global Powers in Syria

The Syrian Crisis: Bashar al-Assad flees

The ongoing inhumane bloodshed has barely paused when once again, the sudden eruption of war in Syria has unleashed chaos, akin to an apocalypse. It appears that the recent attacks on Aleppo are part of a calculated plan, taking advantage of a critical moment where Iran and its proxy groups are engaged in battles for their survival. This seems to be the ideal time to exploit their vulnerabilities, exacerbated by the regional turmoil ignited by Hamas’ assault on Israel on 7th October last year. That attack and Israel’s retaliatory actions shattered the region’s fragile equilibrium. The events of the past few days in Syria are clear evidence that the conflicts in the Middle East are far from abating; in fact, they are intensifying.

Despite nearly a decade of war after 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad managed to retain power, primarily by relying on his willingness to sacrifice his nation to preserve the regime inherited from his father. Assad leaned heavily on powerful allies such as Russia, Iran, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who helped counter groups supported by the US and affluent Middle Eastern nations, including the so-called Islamic State.

However, Iran has faced Israeli strikes, while Hezbollah, which once dispatched its elite fighters to Syria, has suffered heavy losses due to similar attacks. Although Russia has carried out airstrikes against Syrian rebels in recent days, its military resources remain deeply entangled in the war in Ukraine. Consequently, the war in Syria has never truly ended. However, it has faded from international headlines, partly because reporting from within Syria has become nearly impossible. While fighting subsided in some areas, the underlying conflict remained unresolved.

Bashar al-Assad’s government has not regained full control as it had prior to 2011, even though its prisons are overflowing with detainees. Until recently, major cities and key highways were under Assad’s control. However, following the astonishing defeat of Syrian troops at the hands of the rebel coalition known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) since 27th November, the region has been left stunned. Emerging from the Idlib province near Turkey’s border, HTS fighters managed to capture significant territories in mere days.

Just two days after these swift attacks, images surfaced from Aleppo’s ancient city, once considered an “invincible bastion” of the Syrian army between 2012 and 2015. Back then, Aleppo was a major battleground between government forces and rebels. After the city’s capture and the Syrian army’s defeat, calm seemed to have returned. Social media showed images of armed fighters in uniforms queuing at fast-food outlets for fried chicken—a stark contrast to the bloody battles of the past.

HTS, which severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, has a complicated history, including infighting between the two groups. The United Nations Security Council, along with the US, EU, Turkey, and the UK, designates HTS as a terrorist organisation. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has a long-standing presence in Iraq and Syria. In recent years, he has sought to distance the group from its jihadist roots and expand its support base. HTS now avoids using Islamist or jihadist rhetoric in its communications and declarations. According to defence analyst Muna al-Lami, HTS aims to reframe itself as a resistance force against the Syrian government, shedding its extremist image.

It is worth noting that the Syrian people generally do not favour extremist jihadist ideologies. Following the anti-government protests in 2011, many citizens distanced themselves from the movement once democratic protests were overtaken by jihadist groups. Fear of groups like Islamic State even drove some Syrians to reluctantly align with the government.

The recent offensive led by HTS relates closely to the political landscape of northern Syria. The north-west is dominated by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurds, with 900 American troops stationed in the region. Turkey also plays a significant role, deploying troops along its borders and supporting certain armed groups. Reports from Syria suggest that the rebels have seized significant military equipment, including government helicopters, and are now advancing towards Hama, another key city en route to Damascus.

Undoubtedly, the Syrian government and its allies will retaliate with aerial strikes. The rebels lack air power, but reports suggest they recently used drones to assassinate a senior Syrian intelligence officer. This escalating situation has raised international alarm bells.

The resurgence of large-scale rebel offensives in Syria has dispelled the notion that their military strength had diminished. The unexpected attack by HTS led to the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, forcing government forces to retreat. As a result, Russia conducted airstrikes in Syria for the first time since 2016, targeting rebels in Aleppo. Fourteen years after the onset of Syria’s civil war, this renewed conflict underscores fears that the crisis is far from over.

Since 2018, Syria’s civil war has fragmented the country into three parts: areas controlled by President Bashar al-Assad’s government, territories held by Islamist rebels, and regions dominated by Kurdish forces. But what are the reasons that make ending Syria’s civil war so difficult?

Syria: A Global Chessboard

Syria has become a global chessboard where rival powers pursue their strategic objectives by supporting local allies. On one side is Bashar al-Assad’s government, backed by Iran and Russia. On the other are armed opposition groups supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. As the conflict escalated, extremist groups such as the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda entered the fray, further heightening global concerns.

Syrian Kurds, backed by the United States, aspire to establish the own governance, adding to the complexity of the crisis. Russia and Iran have played a pivotal role in sustaining Assad’s regime, while Turkey has supported armed groups near its border in the north. In 2020, Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire agreement in Idlib, establishing a security corridor for joint patrols. While the agreement reduced large-scale clashes, the Syrian government has not regained full control.

A Resurgence Amid Weakness

Taking advantage of the weakened government, opposition groups have regained momentum, as Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran, are entangled in other conflicts. Assad’s regime, which has long relied on external support, has found itself isolated. Hezbollah suffered losses due to Israeli actions, while Russia’s focus shifted to Ukraine. In this vacuum, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a sudden offensive, capturing territories.

The resurgence of fighting is also tied to persistent local instability in the north and a lack of external support, which Assad’s regime heavily depended on. Years of civil war have devastated Syria’s economy and infrastructure, leaving millions displaced. The road to recovery remains unclear.

Humanitarian Crisis

According to the UN, Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million has been halved. Nearly 2 million people live in camps without basic facilities, while over 6 million have sought refuge in Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. Turkey alone hosts over 5 million Syrian refugees. The camps, already housing 2 million, are at full capacity, and further conflict could force more people into these overcrowded shelters.

Before this latest conflict, over 15 million Syrians required humanitarian aid, with 12 million facing food insecurity. The February 2023 earthquake worsened the situation, killing nearly 6,000 people in Syria and affecting over 8 million.

Assad’s Grip Through Force

The Assad government has relied on violence and repression to maintain power, intensifying public anger and prolonging the conflict. A 2021 UN report documented evidence of chemical weapon use, airstrikes on civilian areas, and sieges of opposition-controlled regions, depriving civilians of food and obstructing humanitarian aid.

Julien Barnes, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, remarked, “Authoritarian governance is central to this conflict because the Assad regime has consistently refused to compromise or share power.” By 2020, UN estimates indicated that over 300,000 civilians had been killed in military operations, with many more succumbing to hunger, disease, and lack of healthcare. The Royal United Services Institute noted that the Syrian government prioritizes its survival over good governance.

Sectarian and Political Divides

In addition to political differences, sectarian divides also fuel the conflict. Kurdish-majority areas have remained outside government control since the early days of the war. Remnants of ISIS continue to pose a threat in Syria’s vast deserts, while Idlib province has become a stronghold of militant groups led by HTS.

Tensions between opposition factions complicate matters further. Groups supported by Turkey frequently clash with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition supported by the US. Recently, the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army claimed control over parts of Aleppo’s outskirts, previously under SDF control, exposing divisions among opposition groups.

Recent Rebel Gains

Rebel forces recently captured large parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, marking a significant shift. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Russian airstrikes targeted Aleppo last week for the first time since 2016. The Observatory reported that over 300 people, including 20 civilians, have been killed since the fighting began on Wednesday.

In 2016, Assad’s forces had expelled rebels from Aleppo, and no major offensives had occurred there since. Now, Syrian military sources confirm that rebels have infiltrated much of the city, with dozens of soldiers killed or injured.

A City in Turmoil

Military sources revealed that all routes to Aleppo’s airport and city centre have been blocked. The Syrian Observatory stated that rebels entered “the majority of the city’s areas” with little resistance, as government forces withdrew. City council offices, police stations, and intelligence centers have been abandoned—an unprecedented development.

The Syrian army claims to have regained control of parts of Aleppo and Idlib from HTS and its allies, but videos shared on HTS-linked social media channels show rebel vehicles in the city. Global media corroborated the footage, filmed in Aleppo’s western suburbs.

The latest developments illustrate that Syria’s conflict is far from over, and the power vacuum created by years of war continues to fuel instability across the region.

After the civil war that erupted in 2011 following pro-democracy protests, over 500,000 people lost their lives in Syria. During this period, opponents of President Bashar al-Assad, including jihadist groups, exploited the chaos and seized control of significant portions of the country.

However, with the assistance of allies like Russia, Iran, and others, the Syrian government eventually regained almost all territories, except for Idlib, which remains under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In this province, some areas also house Turkish-backed fighters.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Russia carried out 23 airstrikes in Aleppo on Friday. Russian news agencies report that Moscow claims to have targeted “extremist forces” in Syria. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, reaffirmed that Russia will continue supporting the Syrian government to maintain peace in the region.

Who Are the Attackers in Aleppo?

The recent attacks on Aleppo were led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a group with a longstanding role in the Syrian conflict. HTS originated in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former leader of ISIS, also played a role in its formation. At the time, it was considered one of Assad’s most formidable adversaries. In 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, severed ties with al-Qaeda, dissolved the organisation, and founded HTS by uniting with other factions. Since then, HTS has shifted its focus from establishing a global caliphate to creating a fundamentalist Islamic state within Syria.

HTS’s recent operations have also dealt significant blows to Iran and its proxies.

The Situation After Years of Stability

For the past four years, it seemed as though the war in Syria had largely concluded, with Bashar al-Assad’s government regaining control over most of the country. Assad’s success was largely attributed to Russian air support and the military capabilities of his key ally, Iran. However, Iran has resisted acknowledging that Aleppo is no longer under the Syrian government’s control. Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, as dismissing reports of Aleppo’s fall to “terrorists” as false rumours spread by a “cyber army.” Amani reiterated Iran’s continued support for the Syrian government and its people.

On the other hand, Arab media is calling the advance of rebel fighters in Aleppo a “blow for Iran.” According to Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, the rebels’ progress in Syria is a “setback” not only for Russia and the Syrian government but also for Iran. The ongoing fresh battles in Aleppo and other areas are the result of foreign interference by Iran and other foreign powers in Syria. Just as this article was being written, news came in that the Mujahideen had entered Damascus, and it was announced on state TV and radio that the regime of Bashar al-Assad had been overthrown and political prisoners were being released.

On the surface, it appears that the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has collapsed within just a few days, but the situation is not that simple, and several factors are involved. The years-long war against his own people had severely weakened Bashar al-Assad’s military. However, despite that, the swiftness of these events is truly surprising.

Shortly after the rebels captured Syria’s third-largest city, Homs, it was reported that the Mujahideen had entered Damascus. Upon hearing this news, Bashar al-Assad left Damascus in a plane heading to an unknown destination. The head of the Syrian National Coalition, Hadi al-Bahra, stated that with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, “the dark era of Syria” had come to an end. He assured the public that the situation in Damascus was secure, and all citizens, irrespective of sectarian or religious differences, were safe in their homes, with no reprisals against anyone.

All Mujahideen present in Damascus were instructed not to enter public institutions, and air firing was banned. Until the formal transfer of power, public institutions will continue to function under the leadership of Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali. Mohammad al-Jalali announced that whatever the people choose, he is ready for any method of power transfer. It is noteworthy that the most organized and powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is leading the revolution. Compared to other groups, its influence from foreign powers is minimal. Other groups, however, are under the influence of Turkey. It remains to be seen how these groups will maintain coordination with the ones already in place.

In 2015, a resolution was passed by the United Nations Security Council proposing a peace plan. According to this, it was agreed that the Syrian people would decide the future of their country. Free elections would be held, and a new charter would be introduced. However, for this resolution to be implemented, Bashar al-Assad and his family would have to relinquish power. But Bashar al-Assad was unwilling to sacrifice his power. Yet today, time has proven that, in the end, the cries of thousands of innocent people have found their destination.