Abu Mohammed al-Jolani: The rebel leader behind Assad’s downfall

Jolani, once an extremist with deep-rooted ties to jihadism, has in recent years adopted a more pragmatic and moderate posture, aiming to reshape his image. On Sunday, as rebels entered Damascus, he instructed his forces to refrain from approaching public institutions. Earlier in the week, he declared his objective to overthrow Assad, emphasizing a vision of liberation.

Thirteen years after Assad’s crackdown on a nascent democracy movement sparked Syria’s devastating civil war, rebels announced that Assad had fled the country, declaring Damascus free of tyranny. Jolani, who for years operated from the shadows, now dominates the spotlight, delivering statements that have captivated Syrians worldwide.

From the Shadows to the Spotlight

During the offensive, which began on November 27, Jolani made a rare public appearance in Aleppo, Syria’s second city, after wresting it from government control for the first time in the war. Shedding the turban often associated with jihadists, he donned military fatigues, presenting himself as a revolutionary leader rather than an extremist.

On Wednesday, he appeared at Aleppo’s historic citadel, dressed in khaki attire, waving to crowds as he navigated through the liberated city. His transformation from a radical jihadist to a leader with aspirations of state-building reflects his calculated approach to gaining legitimacy.

Since severing ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016, Jolani has worked to portray himself as a moderate leader. However, his group remains classified as a terrorist organization by Western governments, and many analysts remain skeptical of his true intentions.

A Pragmatic Radical

Thomas Pierret, an expert in political Islam, described Jolani as a “pragmatic radical.” In the early years of Syria’s civil war, Jolani competed with the Islamic State (IS) for dominance, reaching the height of his radicalism in 2014. However, his rhetoric has since evolved.

Born in 1982, Jolani—whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa—grew up in the upscale Damascus district of Mazzeh. He hailed from a well-to-do family and excelled academically. His nom de guerre, Jolani, reflects his roots in the Golan Heights, a region annexed by Israel in 1967.

Following the September 11 attacks, Jolani was drawn to jihadist ideologies, attending clandestine sermons in marginalized Damascus suburbs. After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, he joined Al-Qaeda’s Iraq branch, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Imprisoned for five years, he returned to Syria in 2011, founding the Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate.

Charting a New Path

In 2013, Jolani refused to swear allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, aligning instead with Al-Qaeda’s then-leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. By 2016, Jolani publicly cut ties with Al-Qaeda, claiming the move was to deprive Western powers of justification for targeting his organization.

In 2017, he consolidated power by merging HTS with rival Islamist groups in northwest Syria, gaining control over Idlib province. Under HTS’s rule, a semblance of governance emerged, with institutions established to administer the region. However, rights groups and residents accused HTS of brutal abuses, which the UN classified as war crimes.

Reassuring a Fearful Public

Amid the offensive, Jolani sought to reassure residents of Aleppo, including its sizable Christian minority, promising their safety under his leadership. He called on fighters to maintain security in areas “liberated” from Assad’s regime.

Analysts view Jolani’s outreach as a calculated move. Aron Lund, a fellow at the Century International think tank, noted that presenting himself as a responsible leader rather than a jihadist extremist was “smart politics.” While doubts about his sincerity persist, Lund added, “The less local and international panic you have, the easier his job will become.”

Jolani’s transformation and HTS’s role in Assad’s apparent downfall signal a significant shift in Syria’s political landscape. As the world watches, questions remain about whether Jolani’s moderation is genuine or atactical maneuver to secure power.