Why doesn’t Egypt host the Hamas Political Bureau? by Mahmoud Hassan

Protesters holding Hamas flags gather in Hebron, West Bank during a protest condemning the assassination of Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri by Israeli drone attack, on January 03, 2024 [Mamoun Wazwaz/Anadolu Agency]

As US President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to return to the White House in January, regional and international matters are getting shuffled and mixed. Arguably the most prominent of these matters on the Arab and international agendas is the future of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. Washington has reportedly asked Doha to expel the movement, freeze its funds and hand some of its senior officials over for trial if it continues to reject a ceasefire agreement with the Israeli occupation after more than 400 days of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

Hamas is a major player in the Palestinian file. It enjoys popular support in the occupied Palestinian territories and has intertwined and close relations with influential capitals in the Middle East. This makes it difficult to get rid of the movement or clip its wings.

Doha has been criticised by Israel and the US due to its relationship with Hamas, especially since the events of 7 October last year. There have been successive suggestions that the movement has been asked by Qatar to relocate.

Reuters quoted an official in May — someone said to be familiar with the Qatari government assessment — as saying that Doha is considering whether to allow Hamas to continue operating its political office in the Qatari capital, as part of a broader review of the mediation role played by the Gulf state between Hamas and Israel.

A few days ago, US and Qatari sources said that American officials had asked their counterparts in Doha to expel Hamas, and that Qatar had notified the movement of this, CNN has reported.

However, the Qatari Foreign Ministry responded by saying that the reports regarding the Hamas office in Doha are inaccurate. The ministry stressed that the main purpose of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication between concerned parties, and that this channel has agreed ceasefires on several occasions.

The foreign ministry did not deny that Doha had received American requests in this regard, nor did it disclose its final position on this. It may be awaiting understandings with the incoming Trump administration, arrangements made in consultation with Hamas leaders, or in anticipation of progress in mediation that would arrive at a ceasefire agreement.

Diplomatic circles suggest that Qatar, which announced the suspension of its mediation between Hamas and Israel, has prepared flexible scenarios that would relieve it of any embarrassment, while at the same time maintaining its weight in managing the Palestinian file.

Doha has been hosting the Hamas Political Bureau since 2012, and its prominent political leaders live there.

The Qatar-based media network Al Jazeera has been covering the war in Gaza around the clock for more than a year. Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad, participated in the funeral of the head of the movement’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran in July and buried in Doha on 2 August.

Moreover, Hamas has apparently not been told to leave Doha, but has been made aware of America’s request for it to be expelled. That’s according to the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, which quoted a responsible source in the movement as its source. The Qatari government has not requested anything from the movement’s leaders, and regards the US requests as pressure to force the movement to make concessions in the stalled Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and does not focus its entire presence in the small Gulf state. Its cadres are spread across Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Egypt and other countries.

Over the course of nearly four decades, since the establishment of its political bureau in 1992, the movement’s headquarters have moved between three Arab capitals: Amman, Damascus and Doha. Its leaders have been staying in several capitals, including Cairo, Algiers, Tunis, Ankara, Tehran and Beirut, the latter of which provides it with a wide network of relations with Hezbollah, and military and organisational bases in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

Palestinian expert Abdul Ghani Al-Shami told me that Qatar differentiates between being a mediator and hosting the Hamas Political Bureau, which basically just gives it office space, but does not allow any activities, and is well known to the Americans. He noted that the movement’s media and press conferences are often held and broadcast from Beirut.

Al-Shami believes that the rumours that are circulating constitute political pressure on the movement to lower its demands at the negotiating table.

Significantly, Hamas has not yet left Doha and has not moved its political office to another capital.

Observers believe that there are other options for the movement, including Tehran, Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sanaa. All of these come with high security risks though, given how easy it is to penetrate the five capitals, and the freedom given to the Israeli army to launch attacks on them. This was evident in the political murder of Haniyeh in Tehran, where he attended the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian; his deputy Saleh Al-Arouri was assassinated in Beirut in January.

Media reports indicate that the summit between the Emir of Qatar and Turkish President Recep Tayyeb Erdogan last Thursday discussed the possibility of Turkiye hosting Hamas leaders, with Qatar covering the expenses of accommodation and insurance. It is a logical option if US pressure on Doha escalates; Ankara is probably able to bear the repercussions of such a move and Turkiye has a desire to play a more influential role in the Palestinian file.

Other options may also be possible, such as Algeria, Oman, Mauritania and South Africa. Doha and Ankara are expected to play a coordinating role in managing the arrangements and deciding who will host Hamas, in consultation with its leaders, who are known for their diplomacy and political shrewdness.

However, Egyptian journalist and politician Tamer Sherine Shawky presented a different proposal on Facebook. He demanded that Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi should host the Hamas Political Bureau in Cairo.

Shawky justified this by saying that it is a golden opportunity to restore some of Egypt’s lost influence in the Palestinian cause. It may become a key to any future crises with Israel, especially after its control of the Philadelphi (Salah El-Din) Corridor in violation of the peace treaty between the two countries.

According to one Egyptian political analyst, who requested anonymity, Egypt is already hosting some Hamas leaders and their families unofficially, such as Mousa Abu Marzouk, and that some of them have Egyptian citizenship. It must be considered that Qatar’s hosting of Hamas leaders was agreed with the US, and if Egypt is to host them, it would be on the same basis.

“Such a move contradicts Egypt’s obligations under the Camp David Accords and the rules of the American strategy that imposed on successive Egyptian regimes the principle of protecting Israel’s security and thus not hosting its enemies,” added the analyst. “The matter may also cause tensions and security problems between the two sides, if any of the Hamas leaders are targeted [for assassination] on Egyptian territory.”

Egypt’s General Intelligence Service often hosts political and security delegations from Hamas to consult on the ceasefire, prisoners and Palestinian reconciliation. However, given the Egyptian regime’s positions on the Gaza war and the accusations that it is involved in the siege of the enclave and procrastination in opening the Rafah border crossing, it is difficult for Cairo to take the step of hosting Hamas. The regime fears provoking the anger of Tel Aviv and Washington, which is something that Al-Sisi does not want.

In any case, Hamas is likely to spread its leadership and offices over more than one foreign capital, and there is no doubt that it will maintain a presence in Doha, albeit in a limited manner. The size will depend on developments, and will need both the movement’s flexibility and wisdom to deal with the pressure exerted on Qatar in a manner that serves its best interests in the future.